本文採用己被廣泛應用的全球貿易分析模型(GTAP)來研究海峽兩岸簽訂經濟合作框架協定(ECFA)後所產生的經濟影響。該分析所採用的資料庫基於2002年的GTAP資料庫(VER R6.0 final release)。GTAP是美國Purclue大學開發的多個國家或地區可計算一般均衡模型。它是一個比較靜態模型。如圖3所示,假設市場是完全競爭的,生產的規模報酬不變,生產者最小化生產成本,消費者最大化效用,所有產品和投入要素全部出清。每種產品的生產採用嵌套的常係數替代彈性方程,中間投入品是由國(區)內和國(區)外產品通過常係數替代彈性方程複合而成。
不同的國(區)外產品按原產地進行分類,並通過常係數替代彈性方程複合為單一的進口產品。在要素市場,勞動力在國(區)內是可以自由流動的,而土地在部門間不是完全流動的,所以不同用途的土地價格可以不一致。每個國家或地區只有一個帳戶,所有的稅收和稟賦收入都積聚到這個帳戶,並通過柯布一道格拉斯效用方程,以固定比例將收入分配到私人消費、存款和政府消費。私人的支出方程採用CDE(constant difference of elasticity)方程,政府的支出方程採用柯布一道格拉斯方程。另外在GTAP模型中,各個國家或地區的儲蓄匯總到“國際銀行”,並根據資本的回報率在各個國家或地區間分配。(GTAP基本模型框架請見圖三 )http://www.freeworld.com.tw/edm/Kpwan/1207-2.html
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The Effect evaluation of ECFA toward cross trait economy
LI Fei JIANAG Han-ming
Abstract:This paper firstly reaserch the features and present situation of cross trait trade,then use global trade analysis model throughly analysis the framework and background of ECFA signed by the trait and base on the GTAP modle to simulation and predict the influence on the economic and trade between the trait.The GTAP modle appears that overall ECFA will promote the growth of trait trade,improve the increase rate and warefare of Taiwan and mainland.From the industry angle,ECFA has great advantage for the argriculture export and manufacture at the same time it will develop the potential of coal products and chemical rubber products for mailand.Signed of ECFA also will effectively transfer and optimize the industry structure of mainland through constrct the free trade area.The industrial product of mainland will be promoted,but the argriculture product of mainland will be attacked.
Key words:ECFA GTAP The cross-strait economic and trade